As a range of planetary boundaries are crossed, human societies face new challenges to adapt to a radically different and uncertain future, and to anticipate - and implement - the deep transformations required, such as the shift to zero-emission energy technologies and the phasing out of fossil fuels.

Facing these challenges requires us to question existing modeling tools - and the scenarios they underpin - and the methods at our disposal to provide insights into the future and enable decision makers to implement ambitious, adequate and virtuous actions. 

Responding to these challenges necessarily involves a range of academic disciplines and opens up new questions and areas of research:

• The systemic nature of these challenges requires the use of models to adequately describe the interactions between human activities and the environment, as well as their potential evolution. The way in which these models are built and function itself leads to a range of questions related to their underlying dynamics, the coherence of physical and macroeconomical loopbacks, the ways in which they apprehend environmental changes, as well as questions around calibration and transparency.

• Many public and private actors use scenarios - often based on such models - to explore the future and their potential actions. The processes through which these scenarios are built, what and how information is used to drive them, and how they are used, also needs exploring.

• Organisations face an increasingly uncertain and turbulent future and this must be reflected in their strategic decision making processes. It is crucial to explore how these decision making processes can better reflect present and future challenges for public and private actors to accelerate their actions in consequence. 

The aim of this seminar is to enable participants to take a step back regarding decision making tools (models, scenarios, management sciences) in the context of the radically different future we face in the anthropocene, and to explore opportunities for an appropriate evolution of these tools and their uses. 

In particular, the week seeks to explore how they can better integrate physical constraints (e.g. the necessity to first invest energy in order to harvest some more), systemics, social sciences and the uncertainties linked to the disruption of planetary equilibria. This can only be achieved by exploring in a multidisciplinary way the traditional modeling, scenario building and decision making tools of public and private organisations, in order to build bridges between disciplines and facilitate recommendations and actions.

In a five day immersive setup at the Ecole de physique des Houches, the conference will bring together researchers from the different fields involved (economics, Earth and life sciences, engineering, geopolitics, sociology, management sciences) but also practitioners working directly with scientific data and with the ability to question the limits of current decision making processes.

Throughout the week, different sessions will focus on:

1. The state of the art and the methodological challenges faced by the modeling and transition scenario-building processes (e.g., linking raw materials and energy demand and availability, the integration of environmental feedbacks into modeling, the modeling of agents behavior, model backtesting) and the perspectives.

2. The challenges faced by the management sciences (among others corporate strategy), and political sciences as well, in integrating the results of modeling and scenario analysis, and beyond that the "physical constraints" induced by planetary boundaries (incl. resources availability, environmental feedback, etc.), into the methodologies used by stakeholders such as public organizations and companies in their strategy building processes

By exploring these issues with a multidisciplinary lens, this conference hopes to support the development of mixed physical, economic, political and social tools to enable a systemic approach in the making and use of models and scenarios for decision-makers. It will help define new fields of work for considering and supporting the alignment of human activities with planetary boundaries.

Those wishing to attend the conference are invited to register as soon as possible using the pre-registration form. The rate for the five days (seminar + accommodation + catering) is €540 TTC.

By April 12, 2024 at the latest, registrations will be confirmed to each registrant by the organizing committee, taking into account the balance of participation between the different scientific disciplines, and giving preference to participants who can attend the seminar for the whole week.

Les Houches is a village located in Chamonix valley, in the French Alps. Established in 1951, the Physics School is situated at 1150 m above sea level in natural surroundings, with breathtaking views on the Mont-Blanc mountain range.

The 70-seat conference room is fully equipped with multimedia facilities, and surrounded by numerous other rooms for smaller working groups.

All participants and speakers will be accommodated in chalets close to the conference room and restaurant. 

Practical information on the school and how to get there can be found on the school’s website 

• https://www.houches-school-physics.com/
• https://www.houches-school-physics.com/practical-information/access/

Les Houches Physics School is UAR 2002 run by Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA). The 5 School Partners are UGA, the Institut National Polytechnique (Grenoble-INP), the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), the Commissariat à l'Energie Atomique (CEA), and the Ecole Normale Supérieure de Lyon (ENS Lyon).

Ecole de Physique des Houches, 149 Chemin de la Côte, F-74310 Les Houches, France
 

• Hervé BERCEGOL
• Clotilde CHAGNY
• Marion FERRAT
• Thomas GAUTHIER
• Romain GRANDJEAN
• Zeynep KAHRAMAN-CLAUSE
• Noémie REBIERE
• Jacques TREINER

• Diane BEAULIEU
• Jean-Louis BERGEY
• Jean BOISSINOT
• Emmanuel BONNET
• Emilie BOURLIER-BARGUES
• François BRIENS
• Paul BROCKWAY
• Petros CHATZIMPIROS
• Béatrice COINTE
• Patrick CRIQUI
• Louis DELANNOY
• Roger FOUQUET
• David GAME
• Thomas GAUTHIER
• Gaël GIRAUD
• Antoine GODIN
• Pierre-Baptiste GOUTAGNY
• Alain GRANDJEAN
• Emmanuel HACHE
• Olivier HAMANT
• Carey KING
• Susan KRUMDIECK
• Elisa LANZI
• Julien LEFEVRE
• Michel LEPETIT
• Nadia MAIZI
• Valéry MICHAUX
• Aline MOSNIER
• Nicolas NOVA
• Caroline NOWACKI
• Ioana OCNARESCU
• Florent PARMENTIER
• Marie ROUSSIE
• Roger SPITZ
• Stéphanie TILLEMENT
• Olivier VIDAL